2024 Australia Vintage

Wine Australia's National Vintage Report 2024 is a supply and demand document rather than a weather diary, and it says less about conditions in the vineyard than the 2023 and 2026 reports do. What it does say is direct. Market Insights Manager Peter Bailey stated that seasonal factors contributed to 2024 being another small vintage, but that the significant further reduction in the red crush could be largely attributed to decisions made by grapegrowers and wine businesses to reduce production, driven by low grape prices, significant red wine stock overhangs and reduced global demand for wine. Bailey also made the point that a smaller crush did not signal a shrinking supply base: there was no indication that the vineyard area had declined significantly, so the potential for a large crop still existed without active management of yields. Neither Wine Australia nor the trade coverage of the report identified specific frost, heat, rainfall or smoke events for the 2024 season, so no such claims are made here.

• Wine Australia stated that seasonal factors contributed to 2024 being another small vintage
• The further reduction in reds was largely attributed to deliberate grower and winery decisions to cut production
• Low grape prices, red wine stock overhangs and reduced global demand were named as the drivers of those decisions
• No significant decline in vineyard area, so the potential for a large crop remained without active yield management
• The 2024 sources record no specific frost, heat, rainfall or smoke events, so none are asserted

The overall year-on-year increase in the crush was 112,000 tonnes, taking the national total to an estimated 1.43 million tonnes. That followed a 23-year low in 2023, and even after the rebound the result sat well short of the 10-year average of 1.73 million tonnes. Peter Bailey put it in trend terms: this was the third vintage in the past five to land below the 10-year average, and as a result the five-year average had dropped by more than 100,000 tonnes in two years. South Australia still accounted for the largest share of the national crush at 49 per cent, but its crush fell 4 per cent and it shed 6 percentage points of share to the other states. Every state except Western Australia crushed more than in 2023. Tasmania was the standout, up 42 per cent to a record estimated crush of 16,702 tonnes.

• 1.43 million tonnes, up 112,000 tonnes on the 23-year low recorded in 2023
• Third vintage in five below the 10-year average; the five-year average fell more than 100,000 tonnes in two years
• South Australia led at 49 per cent share but fell 4 per cent and lost 6 percentage points
• Tasmania set a record estimated crush of 16,702 tonnes, up 42 per cent

The whole of the 2024 increase came from white varieties, which rose 117,000 tonnes, or 19 per cent, to 722,000 tonnes. Even after that jump the white crush remained 10 per cent below its 10-year average and the second smallest in 17 years. Reds moved the other way, down just under 5,000 tonnes, or 1 per cent, to 705,000 tonnes. That is the smallest red crush since the drought-affected 2007 vintage and 40 per cent below the 2021 peak of 1.2 million tonnes. The result was a structural milestone: whites took 51 per cent of the crush, the first time since 2014 that the white crush had been larger than the red crush. Variety rankings followed suit. Chardonnay rose 31 per cent to 333,000 tonnes and reclaimed the title of largest variety by crush, which it last held in 2013. Shiraz fell 14 per cent to 298,000 tonnes, its smallest since 2007. Bailey noted that the overall reduction in reds was entirely driven by Shiraz, which lost nearly 48,000 tonnes while most other red varieties increased, and that the decline was not confined to inland regions, with the Barossa and Clare Valleys accounting for one-third of the reduction.

• Whites up 117,000 tonnes (19 per cent) to 722,000 tonnes, the entire national increase
• Reds down to 705,000 tonnes, smallest since 2007 and 40 per cent below the 2021 peak
• White share reached 51 per cent, ahead of red for the first time since 2014
• Chardonnay 333,000 tonnes overtook Shiraz at 298,000 tonnes; Barossa and Clare Valleys drove a third of the Shiraz decline

The grape crush value for 2024 was estimated at $1.01 billion, a 2 per cent increase on the previous year. The 9 per cent lift in tonnage was largely offset by a fall in the overall average value from $642 per tonne to $613 per tonne. Across the warm inland regions both reds and whites declined 5 per cent in average value, while cool and temperate regions saw a small 3 per cent increase in whites and a flat result for reds. Bailey attributed the overall decline mainly to lower average prices paid for both colours from warm inland regions combined with a larger share of tonnes coming from those regions, and urged growers to look at price changes for individual regions and varieties rather than the headline number. He read the ongoing decline in prices for the major inland varieties as evidence that there was no shortfall in supply from the inland regions despite successive low vintages, and welcomed the Australian Government's Grape and Wine Sector Long-term Viability Support Package and its national vineyard register framework as a way to give the sector a clearer picture of true supply.

• Crush value $1.01 billion, up 2 per cent, on an average value down from $642 to $613 per tonne
• Warm inland reds and whites both down 5 per cent in average value
• Cool and temperate whites up 3 per cent; cool and temperate reds flat
• Falling inland prices read as evidence of no supply shortfall despite successive small vintages