2026 Australia Vintage

The 2026 season handed growers a run of damaging weather. Respondents to Wine Australia's National Vintage Survey reported late frosts, heatwaves and flooding across several regions, all contributing to lower production. Wine Australia's Peter Bailey singled out flooding in the inland regions as a significant seasonal challenge, and senior market insights analyst Sandy Hathaway listed flooding in Mildura, frost and a late vintage among the factors that reduced the overall crush. Both were equally clear about the bigger picture. Bailey said that while a number of significant seasonal challenges had an impact on production, the main driver of the lower crush was a deliberate adjustment in response to changing market conditions, and Hathaway said market conditions were believed to be the main driver of the reduced crush. The result was four vintages in a row below the long-term average, which Bailey described as an underlying reset in the tonnage of grapes required by winemakers to meet changing global demand. The fetched sources record no smoke exposure or smoke taint in 2026, and none is asserted here.

• Late frosts, heatwaves and flooding reported across several regions by National Vintage Survey respondents
• Flooding in the inland regions, specifically Mildura, was named as a significant seasonal challenge
• Frost and a late vintage also contributed to the reduced crush
• Wine Australia named deliberate market adjustment, not weather, as the main driver of the fall
• Four consecutive vintages below the long-term average, described as an underlying reset in required tonnage
• No smoke exposure or smoke taint is recorded in the 2026 reporting

At an estimated 1.27 million tonnes, the 2026 crush was 306,334 tonnes smaller than 2025 and 25 per cent below the 10-year average of 1.69 million tonnes. Sandy Hathaway put the practical effect at about 33 million fewer 9-litre cases produced in the year, and said income at the weighbridge was down 26 per cent, which she called a lot for regional communities. The total vintage value fell 26 per cent to A$837 million. Hathaway was frank that many growers actually wanted a small crush. Global consumption is declining, she said, so although a small crush means a lot less income into the regions, which is not a good thing, it is a necessary adjustment. The decline was also notably even. Wine Australia reported that the crush fell in a relatively consistent manner across all states and major regions, and Bailey noted that over the past five years the combined crush from cool and temperate regions has closely matched that of the South Australian Riverland, despite very different seasonal effects, specifications and demand drivers. Global market conditions, he said, affect all regions even where individual circumstances differ.

• 1.27 million tonnes, 306,334 tonnes below 2025 and the smallest crush since 2000
• Around 33 million fewer 9-litre cases; weighbridge income down 26 per cent
• Total vintage value fell 26 per cent to A$837 million
• The decline was relatively even across all states and major regions

Red varieties accounted for 80 per cent of the overall decrease, falling 243,560 tonnes or 29 per cent year on year to the smallest red crush since 2000. Whites fell a much gentler 62,774 tonnes, or 9 per cent, which lifted their share of the total crush six percentage points to 53 per cent. That is only the second time in the past 12 years that whites have accounted for the majority. Bailey tied the shift to changing global consumer preferences: globally, red wine has declined at twice the rate of white wine since 2017 and is now nearly 450 million cases lower than it was in that year, according to the IWSR, and the flow-on effect is that Australian demand for red grapes has fallen further than demand for whites. Chardonnay overtook Shiraz to become the number one variety, and Hathaway pointed out that it was the first time in 20 years that Shiraz had accounted for less than 20 per cent of the crush. She was careful to separate the category from the icon wines: Australia will always have its premium Shiraz, she said, but as an overall category it does seem to be declining.

• Reds down 243,560 tonnes (29 per cent), the smallest red crush since 2000 and 80 per cent of the total decrease
• Whites down 62,774 tonnes (9 per cent); white share up six points to 53 per cent
• Global red wine has declined at twice the rate of white since 2017, nearly 450 million cases lower per the IWSR
• Chardonnay took the number one variety spot; Shiraz fell below 20 per cent of the crush for the first time in 20 years

The most uncomfortable finding in the 2026 report is that a very small crop did nothing for prices. The average value of purchased grapes was $570 per tonne, down 6 per cent on 2025, with declines across warm inland and cool or temperate regions and for both colours. Cool and temperate reds and whites were each down 3 per cent, while across the warm inland regions reds fell 1 per cent and whites 12 per cent. Bailey said there had been no improvement in grape prices, which suggests demand is still very soft, and that it was concerning there was no sign of recovery for reds despite such a significant adjustment, and that prices for whites were now declining too. Looking forward, he noted that current sales of Australian wine on domestic and export markets equate to around one billion litres, or approximately 1.4 million tonnes, which could probably be achieved with a total vineyard area of less than 100,000 hectares, about two-thirds of the estimated current supply base. He also warned of a risk of over-correction, because the sector does not yet have reliable data on vineyard plantings and removals, and pointed to the National Vineyard Register as the tool that will help align supply with demand.

• Average purchase value $570 per tonne, down 6 per cent despite the very small crush
• Cool and temperate reds and whites each down 3 per cent; warm inland reds down 1 per cent and whites down 12 per cent
• Current sales of around one billion litres equate to roughly 1.4 million tonnes of fruit
• Bailey estimated that could be met from under 100,000 hectares, about two-thirds of the current supply base, while warning of over-correction risk

ABC Rural's reporting on the release put faces to the numbers. In McLaren Vale, vineyard contractor Clint Ledgard said that where he used to get a call every few weeks from a grower wanting vines ripped out, in the week of the report he was getting one every day, with growers looking at alternative crops including pomegranates, grain, olives and hemp, and blocks of four to six hectares being pulled at a time. Riverland winegrape and citrus grower Mintu Brar, at Kingston on Murray, said things had been getting harder every year but that he was holding onto optimism, and called for government assistance to help producers through until the market stabilises. One cool climate region stood apart. Coonawarra's crush fell only 0.5 per cent, against declines of more than 20 per cent for most cool climate regions. Luke Tocaciu, owner and winemaker at Patrick of Coonawarra, called that a really positive sign that premium Cabernet Sauvignon specifically is still in demand globally, noted that Cabernet Sauvignon is growing in the export market, and said he remained optimistic for regions with good water security, a consistent product and a world-recognised brand, while acknowledging that a big restructure of the whole industry still needs to happen.

• McLaren Vale vine removal requests rose from every few weeks to daily, with growers weighing pomegranates, grain, olives and hemp
• Coonawarra's crush fell only 0.5 per cent against more than 20 per cent for most cool climate regions
• Patrick of Coonawarra read that as evidence premium Cabernet Sauvignon is still in global demand, with export growth
• Riverland growers called for government assistance while waiting for the market to stabilise